Amy Mihaljevic Jonbenet same killer theory, Santa Claus and the phone call

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Amy Mihaljevic Jonbenet same killer theory, Santa Claus and the phone call

Post by redpill on Thu Dec 25, 2014 2:57 pm

This thread is a response to this

yk robert wrote:there is no evidence jb recieved a call from santa-- so there is no mo matching

it's worth reviewing circumstantial evidence
wiki wrote:

Circumstantial evidence is evidence that relies on an inference to connect it to a conclusion of fact—like a fingerprint at the scene of a crime. By contrast, direct evidence supports the truth of an assertion directly—i.e., without need for any additional evidence or inference.

On its own, circumstantial evidence allows for more than one explanation. Different pieces of circumstantial evidence may be required, so that each corroborates the conclusions drawn from the others. Together, they may more strongly support one particular inference over another. An explanation involving circumstantial evidence becomes more likely once alternative explanations have been ruled out.

Criminal law

Circumstantial evidence is used in criminal courts to establish guilt or innocence through reasoning.

With obvious exceptions (immature, incompetent, or mentally ill individuals), most criminals try to avoid generating direct evidence. Hence the prosecution usually must resort to circumstantial evidence to prove the mens rea levels of "purposely" or "knowingly." The same goes for tortfeasors in tort law, if one needs to prove a high level of mens rea to obtain punitive damages.

One example of circumstantial evidence is the behavior of a person around the time of an alleged offense. If someone was charged with theft of money and was then seen in a shopping spree purchasing expensive items, the shopping spree might be circumstantial evidence of the individual's guilt.

Validity of circumstantial evidence

A popular misconception is that circumstantial evidence is less valid or less important than direct evidence

This is only partly true: direct evidence is popularly, but mistakenly, considered more powerful. Many successful criminal prosecutions rely largely or entirely on circumstantial evidence, and civil charges are frequently based on circumstantial or indirect evidence. Much of the evidence against convicted American bomber Timothy McVeigh was circumstantial, for example. Speaking about McVeigh's trial, University of Michigan law professor Robert Precht said, "Circumstantial evidence can be, and often is much more powerful than direct evidence." [3] The 2004 murder trial of Scott Peterson was another high-profile conviction based heavily on circumstantial evidence.

Indeed, the common metaphor for the strongest possible evidence in any case—the "smoking gun"—is an example of proof based on circumstantial evidence. Similarly, fingerprint evidence, videotapes, sound recordings, photographs, and many other examples of physical evidence that support the drawing of an inference, i.e., circumstantial evidence, are considered very strong possible evidence.

In practice, circumstantial evidence can have an advantage over direct evidence in that it can come from multiple sources that check and reinforce each other.[4] Eyewitness testimony can be inaccurate at times,[5] and many persons have been convicted on the basis of perjured or otherwise mistaken testimony.[6] Thus, strong circumstantial evidence can provide a more reliable basis for a verdict. Circumstantial evidence normally requires a witness, such as the police officer who found the evidence, or an expert who examined it, to lay the foundation for its admission. This witness, sometimes known as the sponsor or the authenticating witness, is giving direct (eye-witness) testimony, and could present credibility problems in the same way that any eye witness does.

However, there is sometimes more than one logical conclusion inferable from the same set of circumstances. In cases where one conclusion implies a defendant's guilt and another his innocence, the "benefit of the doubt" principle would apply. Indeed, if the circumstantial evidence suggests a possibility of innocence, the prosecution has the burden of disproving that possibility.[7]

Circumstantial evidence allows a trier of fact to infer that a fact exists.[1] In criminal law, the inference is made by the trier of fact in order to support the truth of an assertion (of guilt or absence of guilt).

Testimony can be direct evidence or it can be circumstantial. For instance, a witness saying that she saw a defendant stab a victim is providing direct evidence. By contrast, a witness who says that she saw the defendant enter a house, that she heard screaming, and that she saw the defendant leave with a bloody knife gives circumstantial evidence. It is the necessity for inference, and not the obviousness of a conclusion, that determines whether or not evidence is circumstantial.

Forensic evidence supplied by an expert witness is usually treated as circumstantial evidence. For instance, a forensic scientist may provide results of ballistic tests proving that the defendant’s firearm fired the bullets that killed the victim.

Circumstantial evidence is especially important in civil and criminal cases where direct evidence is lacking.

first circumstantial evidence - how did the intruder access the Ramsey home?

the most popular theory is through the basement window.

according to James Kolar in his book FFJ
James Kolar wrote:"Kolar says that an intact spider web left in a Ramsey home window provides telling evidence that no one entered from the outside to kill the child.Kolar says that an intact spider web left in a Ramsey home window provides telling evidence that no one entered from the outside to kill the child."

I think it can be argued that a spider could have re-spun the web seen in the police video. Here though I'll accept this statement, he still ignores the second possibility.

That second possibility is that Jonbenet allowed her killer into the home voluntarily. No forced entry. Jonbenet literally opened the front door for her killer. Now, why would Jonbenet do this? Why would Jonbenet open the door for her killer to come in on the evening of Christmas day?

we have another eye witness testimonial evidence


secret Santa wrote:
Secret Santa Visit

Carnes Account. "On December 25, 1996, while playing at the home of a neighborhood friend, JonBenet told her friend's mother that "Santa Claus" was going to pay her a "special" visit after Christmas and that it was a secret. (SMF P 124; PSMF P 124.) The person who may have said this to JonBenet has never been identified. (SMF P 125; PSMF P 125.)" (Carnes 2003:101).
PMPT Account. "Barbara Kostanick was the mother of a playmate of JBR's. She asserted: "The day before Christmas, JonBenet was at our house playing with Megan. The kids were talking about Santa, getting all excited. I asked JonBenet if she had visited Santa Claus yet. She said, “Oh, Santa was at our Christmas party the other night.” Megan had seen Santa at the Pearl Street Mall, so we talked about that. Then JonBenet said, “Santa Claus promised that he would make a secret visit after Christmas.” I thought she was confused. “Christmas is tonight,” I told her. “And Santa will be coming tonight.” “No, no” JonBenet insisted. “He said this would be after Christmas. And it’s a secret” (Schiller 1999:38-39)

Jonbenet opened the door for her killer based on the belief her killer is Santa.

let's review hypothesis from wikipedia

A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Even though the words "hypothesis" and "theory" are often used synonymously, a scientific hypothesis is not the same as a scientific theory. A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for further research.[1]


A working hypothesis is a hypothesis that is provisionally accepted as a basis for further research[1] in the hope that a tenable theory will be produced, even if the hypothesis ultimately fails.[2] Like all hypotheses, a working hypothesis is constructed as a statement of expectations, which can be linked to the exploratory research [3] purpose in empirical investigation and is often used as a conceptual framework in qualitative research.[4][5]

we have 3 working hypothesis here. one, santa claus is her family, two, santa claus is someone she knows, three, santa claus is someone she does not know, but tricked her into believing she does.

the family has been eliminated based on multiple sources of unsourced trace evidence.

the second hypothesis is discounted

The person who may have said this to JonBenet has never been identified. (SMF P 125; PSMF P 125.)" (Carnes 2003:101).

over 150 suspects and their DNA, all close to Jonbenet were investigated


In 2010, investigators reopened the situation and introduced a fresh spherical of interviews with witnesses hoping that they could supply more insight into the murder, but very little fruitful arrived of those interview

Boulder police have analyzed additional than a hundred and fifty DNA samples and investigated practically the very same amount of money of likely suspects in their ongoing investigation, but none have at any time been linked to the crime.

http://www.abreakingnews.com/breaking/lac-megantic-train-blast-searchers-comb-rubblebreaking/despicable-me-2-tops-us-box-office-chartbreaking/texas-governor-rick-perry-to-retirebreaking/un-inspection-crew-reportedly-leaves-syriaeditorial-articles/university-taking-pictures-in-north-c-h48383.html

this article
Did Santa Claus kill JonBenet? - CNN.com
cnn wrote:
Did Santa Claus kill JonBenet?
Imagine trying to weed through hundreds, maybe thousands, of leads to figure out who killed JonBenet Ramsey. We've heard about some of the suspects over the years, including the Ramseys and their son, Burke. But I wanted to know who we hadn't heard much about, so I decided to look into who some of the previous suspects were and why they were cleared.

Two days before JonBenet Ramsey died, Bill McReynolds played Santa Claus at her home. After her death, investigators instantly became curious about McReynolds and his wife Janet, who had played Mrs. Claus. Back in 1997, McReynolds told a Colorado television station, "I know I didn't do it." But for investigators, there were too many eerie connections between the McReynolds and the Ramseys to just drop it.

Trip DeMuth, one of the original prosecutors on the case, told me that Santa Bill gave JonBenet a card that read: "You will receive a special gift after Christmas."

"Statements like that led me to have some sort of suspicion: What was going on between Santa Bill and JonBenet? Again, he is an individual who was involved with her, had an interest in her, was seen with her, shortly before the murder," DeMuth said.

Investigators were intrigued by the fact the McReynolds' daughter had been abducted 22 years before JonBenet's death ... to the day. And Janet McReynolds had written a play about a child who was molested in her basement, then murdered. The couple gave hair, handwriting and blood samples, but were eventually cleared thanks to DNA tests. Bill McReynolds died back in 2002.

Another man, Michael Helgoth, was also a prime suspect. He was a Colorado native who died shortly after the murder. But his death left more questions than answers.

It appeared to be a suicide. And what about the stun gun discovered next to his body? Investigators believe a stun gun had been used on JonBenet.

Prosecutor DeMuth told me this about Helgoth: "I remember that he had footwear that was consistent with the footprint evidence, he had a stun gun, he had reportedly made statements to a friend, very similar to the types of statements that we're hearing about today in the press with the arrest of John Karr. "

Even more strange, a baseball cap with the letters s-b-t-c was found near Helgoth's body. Those are the same letters found in the ransom note at the Ramsey home. DeMuth says he believes Helgoth's DNA was tested and didn't match up.

All of this leaves me wondering: Will John Mark Karr finally lead to closure in this case or just add himself to the list of names that never panned out?
http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/anderson.cooper.360/blog/2006/08/did-santa-claus-kill-jonbenet.html

Ramsey case Santa Claus figure dead at 72

By Christine Reid
Camera Staff Writer

The Santa Claus figure in the JonBenét Ramsey murder case died over the weekend from a heart attack.

Bill McReynolds was found dead in his Mashpee, Mass., home Monday by his wife, Janet, when she returned from a weekend trip. He was 72.

McReynolds, a former University of Colorado journalism professor, portrayed Santa Claus at the Ramseys' home for the third consecutive year in 1996 — two nights before the 6-year-old was found slain.

JonBenét's death, in some respects, paralleled the plot of a play McReynolds' wife had written before the killing.

Authorities collected hair and handwriting samples from the couple in the first few months following the killing, but police sources said they did not consider the McReynolds serious suspects.

The Ramseys, however, called McReynolds a suspect in their book "Death of Innocence: The Untold Story of JonBenét's Murder and How its Exploitation Compromised the Pursuit of Truth."

Janet McReynolds said Wednesday that her husband's involvement in the infamous case was "the greatest trial of his life."

"He was scarred. He was just so devastated by the mere idea anyone would suspect him of a crime," she said.

McReynolds' death was sudden, his wife said, although he had undergone a bypass operation and replacement of aorta valve in 1996.

He was born in Donna, Texas, in 1930, and received his degree in journalism from the University of Texas. After a stint in the Army, McReynolds returned to his alma mater and taught for five years before moving to Minneapolis to attend the University of Minnesota. He earned his doctorate in American Studies and was hired by CU's journalism department in 1968.

The couple spent the next 30 years in Boulder, raising three children.

After his retirement from CU in 1992, the couple moved to Rollinsville. That is when McReynolds' fascination with Santa Claus began, said his wife.

"He really took the role as his life goal," Janet McReynolds said. "He loved being Santa, he loved little children, and then the Ramsey case destroyed that career and just devastated him. He loved that little girl. It was a very sad thing in his life because he genuinely loved children, and it was the happiest part of his life."

McReynolds' big heart made him a popular instructor, said Doug Cosper, who taught with him at CU.

"Some of his students kept relationships with him their entire lives," Cosper said.

"When the Ramsey story happened, he was hurt very badly, and that's why they had to leave Colorado," he said. "They felt they couldn't live here anymore."

When the couple moved to the small town on Cape Cod in 1998, McReynolds left his role of Santa Claus, his wife said. Instead, the grandfather of six filled his time helping the elderly at the local senior center.

"He made a new start. He was beloved by many people here," said Janet McReynolds. "Of course, he would never get over what happened to him. He would never fully recover from that kind of suspicion."

A memorial service is scheduled for Friday in Massachusetts. A service in Boulder will take place later this month, and his ashes will be scattered in one of his favorite Colorado mountain getaways, his wife said.

The couple's 40th wedding anniversary was Sunday.

Contact reporter Christine Reid at (303) 473-1355 or reidc@thedailycamera.com.

September 9, 2002
http://web.dailycamera.com/extra/ramsey/2002/05lbil.html

other possible Santas
2


A neighbor and family friend, White, now 64, was with John Ramsey when the two discovered JonBenét’s body in the basement of Ramsey’s home the day after Christmas 1996.

In April 1997, then Boulder Police Chief Tom Koby issued a public statement saying White and his wife Priscilla were not suspects and had been key, cooperating witnesses since the beginning of the investigation. But Fleet White has been dogged over the years by bloggers who post suspect theories on the Internet. White has publicly and continually denied any connections to the girl’s death, saying he and his family have suffered from false the allegations.

Miles, a Boulder photographer, sued John Ramsey in 1998 claiming he was defamed by National Enquirer stories that implied that John Ramsey had identified him as a suspect. According to Enquirer articles in 1997, Miles was looked at early in the investigation. He was later cleared as a suspect. In the lawsuit, Miles’ claims against Ramsey were dismissed.


Robert "Chris" Wolf: Wolf, a Boulder journalist, filed a $50 million libel suit against the Ramseys claiming they libeled him in their book "The Death of Innocence" and in TV interviews by claiming he was a suspect.Following the death of JonBenét, Wolf's girlfriend called police to say he was acting suspiciously and was not home during the time of the killing. Boulder police investigated Wolf and said they found no evidence to link him to the crime, according to a press report.

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_24381368/jonbenet-ramsey-case-investigation-touched-many

let's review Process of elimination

Process of elimination is a method to identify an entity of interest among several ones by excluding all other entities.

In education testing

In educational testing, the process of elimination is process of deleting options whereby the possibility of option being correct is close to zero. Certain amount of luck is required but it only comes down to luck when only 2 options are available.
Method

The method of elimination is iterative. One looks at the answers, determines that several answers are unfit, eliminates these, and repeats, until one cannot eliminate any more. This iteration is most effectively applied when there is logical structure between the answers – that is to say, when by eliminating an answer one can eliminate several others. In this case one can find the answers which one cannot eliminate by eliminating any other answers and test them alone – the others are eliminated as a logical consequence. (This is the idea behind optimizations for computerized searches when the input is sorted – as, for instance, in binary search).

In medicine

A process of elimination can be used to reach a diagnosis of exclusion.

It is also an underlying method in performing a differential diagnosis.

there are only 2 ways of communication with which Jonbenet, a 6 year old, could have been instructed and with which she would act on those instructions and be awake Dec 25 night and open the door, 1- she was told in person, or 2- she received a phone call.

Jonbenet is dead. Jonbenet did not state she receive a phone call, but she didn't state where and who is this Santa that told her he was going to visit. She did not clarify that Santa told this to her from her Christmas party or photo shoot studio or dance studio or at a park, or a phone call, or Burke told her or a friend told her. Previous attempts to identify this Santa has failed.

BPD did attempt to identify Santa Claus through all individuals close to the Ramseys and who were at the Christmas Parties, and those close or have been in contact with Jonbenet like the Whites, Chris Wolfe, Santa Bill, Miles her photographer.


1- is strongly disfavored as BPD identified anyone and everyone who may have been in communication with Jonbenet, investigated, and eliminated. That leaves us with

2- Jonbenet received a phone call.

As a hypothesis and as a working hypothesis, I state that Jonbenet received a phone call, with a ruse claiming to be Santa Claus, coming to visit her. This individual is not one of over one hundred fifty suspects investigated with DNA sampled. As a working hypothesis it would explain why there is no forced entry, Jonbenet simply invited him in. As a working hypothesis, a phone call to mislead has been done only once before -  Amy Mihaljevic. Other evidence such as manner of death is consistent with the working hypothesis that Amy Mihaljevic and Jonbenet were killed by the same killer.

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Re: Amy Mihaljevic Jonbenet same killer theory, Santa Claus and the phone call

Post by yk robert on Thu Dec 25, 2014 9:08 pm

Ist-- C. Wolf was not a Boulder jounalist
--- I like hypothesis and I've read lots of them-- You could say Under The Radar has a hypothesis with his goings on about Rod Westmoreland, I read them all and consider-- In fact some times I draw my own Hypothesis . Someone may have it right, But these hypothesis seem to roll and expand from one homemade suspect to another-- What is one to do?
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Re: Amy Mihaljevic Jonbenet same killer theory, Santa Claus and the phone call

Post by redpill on Thu Dec 25, 2014 9:33 pm

yk robert wrote:Ist-- C. Wolf was not a Boulder jounalist
   --- I like hypothesis and I've read lots of them-- You could say Under The Radar has  a hypothesis with his goings on about Rod Westmoreland, I read them all and consider-- In fact some times I draw my own Hypothesis .  Someone may have it right, But these hypothesis seem to roll and expand from one homemade suspect to another-- What is one to do?

Denver post got that detail wrong.

WRT

11. "Plaintiff was not in Boulder, Colorado at the time of JonBenét’s death."
12. "Plaintiff is not, and has never been, the focus of any law enforcement investigation into JonBenét Ramsey’s death."
13. "Plaintiff did not write the ransom note."
14. "Plaintiff did not murder JonBenét Ramsey."
17. "Plaintiff was not in Erie, Pennsylvania at the time of the Brian Wells’ murder.
18. "Plaintiff is not, and has never been, the subject of any law enforcement investigation into Brian Wells’ murder.
19. "Plaintiff did not write the “instructions” to Brian Wells.
20. "Plaintiff did not murder Brian Wells.
48. "From the beginning of the law enforcement investigation of the murder of JonBenét Ramsey to the present date, law enforcement officials have never stated that Plaintiff is a suspect in connection with the murder of JonBenét Ramsey."
49. "Plaintiff had no involvement whatsoever in the murder of JonBenét Ramsey and has no knowledge of how she was murdered or who is responsible for this heinous crime."
50. "At the time of their posting, Defendant knew that the false accusations about Plaintiff were unverified and unsubstantiated."
51. "Defendant’s false accusations regarding Plaintiff demonstrate an intentional disregard for the truth and evidence in the well-publicized investigation of the death of JonBenét Ramsey."

12. "Plaintiff is not, and has never been, the focus of any law enforcement investigation into JonBenét Ramsey’s death."

there goes that theory.

My hypothesis is that 1- Jonbenet invited her killer through the front door so James Kolar's objection is invalid because of 2- pre-arranged visit with Secret Santa.


secret Santa wrote:
Secret Santa Visit

Carnes Account. "On December 25, 1996, while playing at the home of a neighborhood friend, JonBenet told her friend's mother that "Santa Claus" was going to pay her a "special" visit after Christmas and that it was a secret. (SMF P 124; PSMF P 124.) The person who may have said this to JonBenet has never been identified. (SMF P 125; PSMF P 125.)" (Carnes 2003:101).
PMPT Account. "Barbara Kostanick was the mother of a playmate of JBR's. She asserted: "The day before Christmas, JonBenet was at our house playing with Megan. The kids were talking about Santa, getting all excited. I asked JonBenet if she had visited Santa Claus yet. She said, “Oh, Santa was at our Christmas party the other night.” Megan had seen Santa at the Pearl Street Mall, so we talked about that. Then JonBenet said, “Santa Claus promised that he would make a secret visit after Christmas.” I thought she was confused. “Christmas is tonight,” I told her. “And Santa will be coming tonight.” “No, no” JonBenet insisted. “He said this would be after Christmas. And it’s a secret” (Schiller 1999:38-39)

is evidence that she had a meeting with her killer, who she thought was Santa, based on it being a secret and no forced entry, no entry through basement window due to spider web, per Kolar.

She either spoke to Santa in person, or she received a phone call. Over 150 persons were investigated, DNA samples taken, and cleared by BPD, including those close to Jonbenet. Bill Reynolds was one Santa the Ramseys were in contact with, and they were named as suspects, but were cleared by both DNA and handwriting. Jonbenet's photographer was also cleared. So I theorize she received a phone call.



One day in late October 1989, Amy received a phone call after school. He said he needed her help to pick out a present for her mother and had to keep it a secret. The man said he chose Amy because she could keep a better secret than her brother.

He convinced her to walk to the Bay Square Shopping Center Oct. 27. Then he talked her into calling McNulty to make sure she didn't worry.

But Amy couldn't keep a secret - she told two friends.

The abductor had contacted Mihaljevic by telephone and arranged to meet her on the pretext of buying a gift for her mother because she had recently been promoted, as he told her. In November 2006 it was revealed that several other young girls had received phone calls similar to that to which Amy responded, during the weeks prior to Amy's abduction in 1989. These comprised requests from an unknown man, claiming to work with their mother, asking the girl to help him shop for a present to celebrate her mother's job promotion. The girls who received these calls lived in North Olmsted, a suburb near Bay Village; some had unlisted phone numbers

the victimology, motive, modus operandi (MO) in

"The phone call is definitely unique. You don't see that very often," said Spaetzel.

Jonbenet was told to keep it a secret and Amy was told to keep it a secret.

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