answering Jameson points by point on Mr Cruel theory - Violent Crime Linkage System

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answering Jameson points by point on Mr Cruel theory - Violent Crime Linkage System

Post by redpill on Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:40 pm

Suspect

first I want to give a shout out to Sherlockholmes76 for his Mr cruel info. a mr cruel sith lord as it were.  What a Face

whole quote in context

jameson wrote:I don't see how you can put him up as a suspect in the4 Ramsey case. He is in Austrlia, you can't put him in the states, nevermind in Boulder, CO on the night of the murder. He apparently wasn't into leaving notes, nothing I saw on your page. He used surgical tape, not black duct tape which may (or may not) be part of his fantasy. Your guy bound the parents so they would be tortured knowing what was happening to their daughter. If not, he took the child somewhere else. Sorry, I don't think your guy is our guy.

Does Australia put their DNA evidence into CODIS?


point by point


I don't see how you can put him up as a suspect in the4 Ramsey case. He is in Austrlia, you can't put him in the states, nevermind in Boulder, CO on the night of the murder

it seems clear to me Jameson has not studied my theory in any detail since I discuss Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS).

the purpose of Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) is to propose crimes are linked based on behavioral similarity.

http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/tops-opst/bs-sc/viclas-salvac-eng.htm

Introduction

In the mid-1980s, following several complex, multi-jurisdictional serial homicide investigations (the Clifford Olson case being the most notable), it became apparent to Canadian law enforcement officials that a system was required to identify and track serial violent crime/criminals. The Canadian Police Information Centre (CPIC) Advisory Committee, comprised of the major police services across the country, agreed on the need for a central repository to capture, collate and compare violent crimes.
Major Crimes File (MCF)

Following research into the FBI’s automated case linkage system, known as the Violent Criminal Apprehension Program (ViCAP), the Canadian police community was presented with the Major Crimes File (MCF) as Canada’s first attempt at automated case linkage. Data relative to homicides was to be captured on “fill-in-the-blank” questionnaires by investigators in the field and then forwarded to regional analysts who would input the data. Subsequent analysis would then be based upon a query of key words and phrases, or combinations thereof.

By 1990, the MCF had approximately 800 cases on the database; however, no “hits” (linkages) had occurred and the system had acquired a less than enviable reputation as an investigative aid. Concurrent with the lack-lustre performance of the MCF, Inspector Ron MacKay, Officer-in-charge of the Violent Crime Analysis Branch at RCMP Headquarters in Ottawa, Ontario, returned from training at the FBI’s Behavioural Science Unit in Quantico, Virginia.

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Insp. MacKay had spent 10 months at the Academy to acquire the training and skills necessary to become Canada’s first qualified Criminal Investigative Analyst, or “Psychological Profiler”, as it is more commonly known. Upon his return, he recognized the advantage of having an automated case linkage system that utilized some of the same behavioural principles that were applied in psychological profiling to identify and track serial violent crime/criminals.

In 1991, Insp. MacKay undertook a cursory examination of the MCF and, upon finding the dismal results thereof, had a position created to examine the MCF and determine whether it could be improved or rather, should be replaced altogether.

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ViCLAS Research

In 1991, Sgt. Greg Johnson, who had little computer skills but extensive experience in the investigation of serious crimes was recruited to head up what would become the Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS). Sgt. Johnson, along with others, including Sgt. Sharon Olver of the Ontario Provincial Police, and Sgt. Gérald Séguin of the Sûreté du Québec, spent the next eight months conducting research into the most successful American automated case linkage systems.
Other Serious Crime Linkage Systems

Some of the systems they examined included:

   FBI Violent Criminal Apprehension Program (ViCAP);
   Iowa State Sex Crimes Analysis System;
   Minnesota State Sex Crimes Analysis System (MINN/SCAP);
   Washington State Homicide Investigation Tracking System (HITS);
   New York State Homicide Investigation & Lead Tracking (HALT);
   New Jersey Homicide Evaluation & Assessment Tracking (HEAT); and
   Pennsylvania State ATAC Program.

Research revealed that each of these systems were valuable investigative tools and a drastic improvement on our Major Crimes File. Unfortunately none of the systems met our needs so it was decided that a new Canadian system would be developed that would incorporate the best features of each of these systems.

One of the other shortcomings identified in the research of the American systems was that there was no one national major crime linkage system. The FBI’s ViCAP system had not been adopted by all police forces in the U.S. and it did not track serious sexual assaults. Research has shown that the escalation of violence which often occurs in sexual offenses can ultimately lead to homicide.

In addition to examining software, research was also conducted into the types of questions that were important to capture in serious serial offenses. Input was sought and provided by numerous experts in the field of behavioural science, including Dr. Peter Collins of the Clarke Institute of Psychiatry in Toronto, and with their assistance a list of 262 questions was formulated. The questions cover details of all aspects of an incident including victimology, modus operandi, forensics and behavioural information.

The content of the questions would provide investigators with the ability to link offenses based on the offender’s behaviour. Research has shown that serial offenders are motivated to commit crimes by an insatiable fantasy. They may change their method and/or locations but their fantasy will remain constant. Insp. Ron MacKay explains, “The fantasy ritual will continue over time and space. The guy that rapes out of anger when he’s 25 will rape out of anger when he’s 35.”

The questions were put together in booklet form and were designed to eliminate as many open- ended questions as possible. This allows for standardized data collection and more efficient search and find capabilities. The booklet, available in French and English, should be completed by the investigator. It takes approximately two hours to complete and can be used as an investigator’s guide. If the investigator can answer every one of the questions, he or she can be assured they have conducted a thorough investigation.

Types of Crimes

The next consideration in the ViCLAS development was the type of investigations that would be captured. After careful consideration, a list was developed and has evolved over the years to presently include:

   All solved or unsolved homicides and attempts;
   All solved or unsolved sexual assaults or attempts except familial/domestic unless there is unique or significant physical, sexual or verbal behaviour;
   Missing persons where foul play is suspected;
   Unidentified human remains where foul play is suspected;
   All non-parental abductions and attempts;
   False allegations of sexual assault or attempted murder;
   All solved or unsolved or attempted child luring.
   Regardless of the nature of the investigation, investigators may submit their case to ViCLAS using a ViCLAS Booklet if they have reason to believe that the offender involved (known or unknown) may have been responsible for other violent crimes or has the potential to offend/re-offend.
How it Works

When a serious crime occurs that qualifies as a ViCLAS reportable case, an investigator completes the questionnaire/booklet. The booklet is then sent to the ViCLAS centre responsible for the area the offence is reported in. The booklet then undergoes a quality assurance review, and some centres actually perform this twice. If the booklet does not pass the quality review, the investigator may be contacted directly to clear up some minor points or the booklet may be returned to the originator to be resubmitted when completed correctly.

Once the booklet has been entered on the system, the ViCLAS specialist begins the analytical process. This involves conducting extensive background research on both the victim and offender, if he or she is known. A typical analysis will involve the specialist reviewing all data that was available on the subject(s) including information from computerized police information retrieval systems, parolee files and any other reliable information source. They will review all statements, reports and photographs available and in some cases speak to investigators.

Once they have conducted their background research they will draw upon their experience and expertise by conducting various structured queries on ViCLAS. Each specialist will have his or her own approach to this process, but all will in some way be looking at victimology, the offender, modus operandi, behavioural and forensic data found at the scene for clues that may link cases to each other and/or reveal the identity of the offender.

In order to provide the investigators with feedback, they are advised, usually in writing, the results of the analysis, whether it is positive or negative. In the case where a potential link is made, the investigators are asked to provide the ViCLAS centre with the results of their investigation. A potential link is a situation where the ViCLAS specialist has reason to believe that a specific person, known or unknown, may be responsible for one or more crimes. When this occurs, the ViCLAS specialist connects the cases on the database in the form of a series. ViCLAS is then updated in the database accordingly when the investigator confirms or rejects the link by virtue of his/her investigation.

as far as Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) is concerned, there is no need to show Mr. Cruel was in the states, was in Boulder, on the night Jonbenet was murdered in 1996.

Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) is only concerned whether the crimes of Jonbenet has any similarities to Mr. Cruel's crimes in Melbourne.

Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) applied to Jonbenet would single out Mr. Cruel uniquely.

if Jonbenet was not the first victim of a unidentified and unsolved serial home invading child offender, you are basically left with only one candidate Mr. Cruel. there are no other crime series involving young girls in their own homes and a serial offender anywhere in the English speaking world within 30 years of Jonbenet.  of course Jonbenet could be the result of a first time offender who has never offended before or since.

he was never identified, his whereabouts is unknown. investigators did consider he moved or fled to the US or other english speaking country.

my theory is he traveled. it's called a vacation. lots of skiing in Boulder Aspen Co. Lots of Aussies in Boulder who ski during December.

there were brothers who flew from Australia to Boulder Co to ski. while in Boulder they ran out of money and robbed a bank.


He apparently wasn't into leaving notes, nothing I saw on your page.

he left the note at Karmein Chan's home, Payback Asian drug dealer, more and more to come!

leaving written messages is part of his MO/Signature.

this is significant for Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) that hand written messages were present at both crime scenes.


he also makes ransom demands and demands money in all 4 cases, but does not collect money.

this is significant for Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) that ransom demands for money were made at both crime scenes, but no collection of money.


this mo/signature is also present in the Jonbenet crime.

Sharon Wills was abducted Dec 27, 1988 and Jonbenet Dec 26, 1996

this is significant for Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) that dec 26/27 was the date an intruder entered the home of a young girl.


He used surgical tape, not black duct tape which may (or may not) be part of his fantasy.

he used surgical tape to cover eyes/mouth, in other words purely functional. it shows his MO is to bring tape to the crime scene. the tape found on Jonbenet is unsourced.

this is significant for Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) that Mr. Cruel's known crimes involve tape, and the Jonbenet crime had tape present.

Mr Cruel was in Boulder to ski, while ski he decided to fixate on Jonbenet. He needed tape and he found suretape sold at the local ski lodge so he bought that.

Mr Cruel also brought ligature to the crime scene, and unsourced ligature cord was found in Jonbenet.

this is significant for Violent Crime Linkage System (ViCLAS) that ligature was found, since Mr. Cruel was known to bring his own tape AND his knots were those of an expert. his knots were studied by ligature knot experts.

Mr Cruel also wears gloves to avoid fingerprints. some of the fibers found on jonbenet like the brown fibers may have come from a glove.


Your guy bound the parents so they would be tortured knowing what was happening to their daughter.

its worth noting that Sharon Wills lived in the same room with 3-4 other sisters and her parents lived in the other room. thats a pretty small house or apartment. Sharon Wills did not sleep in her own room, she had to share. So Mr. Cruel probably planned to neutralize the parents before taking Sharon Wills. Jonbenet like Karmein Chan lived in a big house. Jonbenet had her own room. So he had more options in his planning. In Nicola Lydia and Karmein Chan, Mr Cruel waited for the parents to leave before he struck. So Mr Cruel showed great flexibility in his planning.

Sorry, I don't think your guy is our guy.

Does Australia put their DNA evidence into CODIS?

good question but they never recovered any DNA from Mr. Cruel.

I discuss Violent Crime Linkage System in my theory so its clear Jameson has not studied my theory in the detail she needed to comment meaningfully and intelligently.  Like a Star @ heaven  Like a Star @ heaven  Like a Star @ heaven

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