debunking The Ransom Note Probability, why rdi like andreww are wrong

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debunking The Ransom Note Probability, why rdi like andreww are wrong

Post by redpill on Sat Mar 21, 2015 8:51 pm

http://gemart.8m.com/ramsey/note/



The Math
Remember our example above how the odds on a coin toss was 2:1, and a dice roll was 6:1?  Well, if we use the same formula using the odds shown in the exhibits above, we can come up with the probability someone else would print all of the nine examples above the same way Patsy Ramsey does.  Our new mathematical equation looks like this:

3:1 x 2:1 x 3:1 x 6:1 x 3:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 x 4:1 x 2:1 = 10,368:1

Interesting number, isn't it? - Slightly over "10 thousand to one" odds!  There is only a 1 in 10,368 chance that anyone other than Patsy Ramsey would write with all nine of the above characteristics.  Are you willing to place a bet at those odds?  And can you imagine what that number would grow to if we added in all the other letters on the ransom note which matched Patsy Ramsey's handwriting?  Remember those 24 of 26 letters that Chet Ubowski supposedly found in the ransom note which matched samples from Patsy Ramsey?  Just 10 more matching letters at 2:1 odds each, added to our existing nine exemplars, would bring the odds over 10 million to one.
 

specifically
Ransom note analysis

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?49860-Ransom-note-analysis
andreww wrote:
Somewhere I did see one of the experts quantify the likelihood of Patsy's handwriting coincidentally matching the ransom note and the odds were astronomical.

The similarities between Patsy's writing and the note are obvious. The fact that Patsy altered her writing style after the fact is obvious. You don't have to be a genius to figure this out! I don't think there is a person on this planet that could match that printing with 100% certainty, but when you factor in the content of the letter, the handwriting itself, her purposely altering her handwriting style after the fact, and the fact that she was at the scene of the crime and the note was written on her pad with her pen, you would have to be a bit on the slow side to think that there was not a very good chance that Patsy wrote that note!




andreww what makes the preceding website an "expert"


it just goes to show if you believe in patsy wrote the note, you'll believe anything.

first, chet ubowski did not state 24 of 26 letters in his report, it was reported by steve thomas who heard it from others.
second, you need to show these calculation you need to show the odds and that they are independent. you can only calculate probablitiles once you know what they are and that they are independent. he has failed to do both.

third, if this was a sound methodology why is it not used? the reason is it is totally bogus.

you can take any handwritten document, say the zodiac killer, then take any other document, say the jonbenet ransom note, point out how this letter resembles that letter, assign an unlikely probability, say 0.001% then multiple when you see other similar letters then conclude that there is only a 1 in 1000 trillion chance somoene other than the zodiac killer wrote the jonbenet ransom note.

there is a site devoted to the zodiac killer that attempts to show based on similar handwriting that zodiac killer wrote the jonbenet ransom note.

http://nanetteb.forumchitchat.com/post/the-brutal-murder-of-jonbenet-ramsey-and-the-zodiac-killer-5743489?&trail=285




since only 1 in 100, 000 have those letters in common, and there are 20 letters in common, we can calculate that only 1 in 100 trillion people would have those letters and words together.

ergo,
the zodiac killer wrote the jonbenet ransom note, using the "expert methodology" websleuths outline

the other methodological flaw is only counting similarities and not differences. if you calculate the odds based on differences you can also arrive at an astronomical number

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